So where might this take us a couple of years ahead? We believe that AI does have the potential to fundamentally transform most of the work tasks that exist today, meaning that the way people do their jobs will evolve drastically. Interpreters, translators, survey researchers, writers, mathematicians, web designers, accountants, auditors, journalists, blockchain engineers, tax preparers and financial managers are all occupations which have a high exposure to AI in the sense that many tasks of these occupations can, in theory, be performed by generative AI (Eloundou, et al., 2023).
But what will be the final impact on these professions? Will they disappear and be replaced by autonomous AI? Or will they continue to exist alongside AI, potentially benefiting from productivity gains? This is where the real question lies. The development of AI is such an important revolution for the labour market that it is not enough to look at the exposure of each profession to AI to be able to make conclusions about the impact of AI on the labour market. We also need to consider the question of substitution or complementarity with AI, i.e., the likelihood of AI complementing or replacing human work. To date, the most comprehensive approach in the literature for incorporating both the AI exposure aspect and the complementarity vs. substitution aspect into the analysis is that of the IMF (International Monetary Fund).
This new approach by the IMF considers not only job tasks, but also social, ethical, and physical aspects of occupations, as well as the skill levels required. This makes it possible to take into account aspects linked to communication (the subtleties of face-to-face interaction and the art of public speaking remain largely the domain of humans), responsibility (the responsibility and ethical decision-making inherent in certain tasks, for example in the field of human health, require human supervision, judgement and, above all, compassion), exposure to external environments and physical proximity to other people (which require a high level of adaptability and sensory acuity)… According to this approach, occupations can be classified into 3 groups2:
- high exposure, high complementarity
- high exposure, low complementarity
- low exposure
High-exposure, high-complementarity occupations have significant potential for AI support, as AI can complement workers in their tasks and decision-making. However, the potential for unsupervised use of AI in these roles is limited. These are mainly cognitive jobs involving a high degree of responsibility and interpersonal interaction, such as those performed by surgeons, lawyers, and judges. In these roles, workers can potentially benefit from the productivity advantages of AI, provided they have the necessary skills to interact with the technology. High-exposure, low-complementarity occupations, on the other hand, are well placed to incorporate AI, but AI is more likely to replace human tasks. This could lead to lower demand for labour and slower wage growth for these jobs. Telemarketers are a prime example. In the US, the number of jobs labelled telemarketers decreased by 49.5% between 2012 and 2019. Finally, “low exposure occupations” have minimal or no potential for AI application. This group encompasses a wide range of occupations, from dishwashers to artists and beyond.
